"Well I think I did pretty good, those are eight of the nine wars I solved. In many cases, in 60%, I said if you don't stop fighting I'm putting tariffs on your countries and you're not going to be able to do business," spoke the Pumpkin President, then adding, "It did different with [Putin] because we don't do very much business with Russia for one thing. You know, he's not like somebody that buys a lot from us... because of, uh... foolishness."

Of course, he hasn't really ended eight wars, unless you stretch the definition to include "mediating minor border disputes." At best, two wars, and three border conflicts that had the potential to become full-scale wars between nations. But I digress.

Donald Trump has branded himself "the President of PEACE", saying he has "now ended many Wars in just six months." Trump would like to tell the world that wars are ending solely because of his administration and his goodwill. This comes as his approval rating only goes lower and lower, wit "only 37% of Americans expressing approval of his performance as president" according to the Guardian, a significant decline from 47% earlier in the year. Nearly half of Americans find the economy and cost of living to be the biggest issue, and Trump's economic policy through his tariffs, tax write-offs for the rich, and protection of corporate exploitation have not helped anyone there.

But such low approval ratings could be catastrophic for a president, even one as short-sighted as Trump. So, in place of comprehensive domestic policy that could actually help citizens, or international policy aimed at genuinely solving issues and benefiting those back home, Trump instead chooses a superficial road as the peacemaker. Because does anyone really want needless suffering and war? But let's look a little more closely at these peace agreements in two ways, first by seeing what peace was brokered, and then by seeing what was paid for that peace. Because, you know... victorious nations aren't going to give away their winning hand for no reason.

Let's start with Trump's signature success in the 20-point peace plan, achieving a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war that has lasted for the last two years. The peace successfully ended Israel's genocide according to a independent UN commission, Amnesty International, and even sources from inside Israel (Our Genocide), as well as destructive acts by the terrorist organization Hamas. His peace plan involved the release of all Israeli hostages and many Gazan prisoners and POWs, the re-establishment of aid, and the provisioning of new governments with oversight of a "Board of Peace" headed and chaired by Trump himself. Of course, you can see why he might be eager there, calling it "a great deal" that makes everybody happy.

Before this deal, Trump told Netanyahu, "I don't know why you're always so fucking negative. This is a win. Take it." He told Netanyahu he was "on his own." But it's clear when reading the points of the 20-point plan that this peace deal gave Israel everything it wanted. Hamas would no longer "have any role in the governance of Gaza", Hamas would be put under check by "regional partners", and would be offered amnesty as long as they agreed to peace. The "Board of Peace" will have Trump and Tony Blair (a major supporter of Israel), as well as others likely to be in the pocket of Israel to oversee the setup of the new Gazan government, which will likely be no threat to Israel.

Meanwhile, Gaza is only getting "24 percent of the agreed-upon number of 600 trucks" according to Al Jazeera. Similarly, Israel has continued to "carry out powerful airstrikes in the Gaza Strip" according to Netanyahu's own office! So Israel has continued to bomb Gaza, prevent aid from entering, and has gotten all of the concessions they want by abusing the U.S pressure while still engaging in what Vance calls "little skirmishes" (which seem to be a lot more than that, but it is Vance.) So... peace? Peace that may not last very long as Israel has everything it wants now, and is already testing the waters of what it can get away with as Netanyahu must rally his extremist base.

With the end of the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Trump's plan was admittedly more sound. The United States secured development rights that would let them create a land bridge to its conclave land for Azerbaijan, and will provide significant investment in Armenia. Of course, Putin's antagonistic decisions also gave the U.S ample opportunity to do so, and it's not like the war was particularly productive. But it was still something good that came out of Trump's reign.

Other peace agreements fall somewhere on this line from the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict to the Israel-Hamas one; from dubious but helpful to disastrous and inevitably going to falter. So that's what peace was brokered. What price was paid?

Part of the reason the United States has so much mediating power is not just because of its geopolitical influence, but because of American goodwill. Partly as a way to pay back the United States for its favors in the past, and to cooperative with a nation that seems easy to work with. It is this good will, "quid pro quo", that makes America have this power.

Trump, by his own admission, has been a very tough negotiator. He threatens tariffs, and he threatens the relinquishment of aid or at worst, military destruction. These threats that come on behalf of the United States of America are intimidating, and they do have weight. Yet, there are two options if they refuse to comply. Either the U.S acts on its threats, or it doesn't.

If the U.S acts on its threats, say the military options, it'll both significantly antagonize other nations. The Negotiation and Conflict Management Research described how "U.S allies have been particularly puzzled by Trump's hard bargaining tactics", and criticized his "overt use of power and personal attacks." When Trump uses this power, it can hurt those he's negotiating with, and force them to cave, looking like a victory. But in response? Other nations will join up to gain leverage against Trump, and remove opportunities for Trump to exploit such advantage.

What Trump's strategy neglects is that by abusing tariffs as a negotiating crutch, the tariffs will lose their power. If America can't be trusted to not abuse this power at any time, they must reduce that power. Either other nations must be preferred to respond against Trump together, minimizing that very leverage, or decentralize away from America. These short-term benefits have encouraged other nations to decouple from America's influence, and despite the time that will take, the long-term effect is clear. The America of tomorrow has lost influence that it has had today. As for military options, the same effects apply, only even more significantly (military support in future operations, military bases, diplomatic concessions, etc.)

What if they don't act on those threats? Perhaps even worse, then, as America looks prudish and weak, unwilling to take risks. When threats aren't acted on, threats become meaningless. It is the goodwill of playing nice with America that makes it such an effective force, and when that force looks weak, so too does its influence.

Hard negotiating tactics can be effective, but only when they're used sparingly. When partners and especially allies can trust you not to abuse such power unless absolutely necessary, they won't take it away from you. That power doesn't just come with responsibility, but with a price. The short-term victories in staving off approval loss (which haven't even been very successful) achieved with the branding of the Peace President have come at the cost of American goodwill.

But like money, goodwill doesn't grow on trees.